Analyzing Mass Shootings
Note to the reader: This research was conducted on our own by using the raw data found and confirmed through multiple sources. We do not cite our sources here as there are many sources used to verify the data. Additionally, while some data (very few) could not be verified to an exact number, we took the most commonly reported numbers in these situations and used those in our raw data. Because we will not be posting our sources for this data it is assumed the reader will take it upon themselves to research the vast sources available to verify the data we have.
Mass Shooting Defined: Any shooting in which (1) the suspect(s) involved targets random individuals only OR in addition to their specifically named targets, (2) the attack or a portion of the attack is carried out in a public area, (3) the suspect’s goal is to cause as many casualties as possible regardless of who each victim is, and (4) the total death count is 10 or more. (This is our personal definition as there has never been an officially accepted definition as of the date of this writing. The high death count is established to maintain consistency and is based on the facts found in the many multiple death murders.)
Mass Shooting Defined: Any shooting in which (1) the suspect(s) involved targets random individuals only OR in addition to their specifically named targets, (2) the attack or a portion of the attack is carried out in a public area, (3) the suspect’s goal is to cause as many casualties as possible regardless of who each victim is, and (4) the total death count is 10 or more. (This is our personal definition as there has never been an officially accepted definition as of the date of this writing. The high death count is established to maintain consistency and is based on the facts found in the many multiple death murders.)
Major mass shootings in the last 30 years:
GMAC (June 18, 1990)
Luby’s (October 16, 1991) Columbine High School (April 20, 1999) Atlanta (July 29, 1999) Red Lake (March 21, 2005) Virginia Tech (April 16, 2007) Binghamton (April 3, 2009) Fort Hood (November 8, 2009) Sandy Hook Elementar (December 14, 2012) |
Aurora Movie Theater (July 20, 2012)
Washington Navy Yard (September 16, 2013) San Bernardino (December 2, 2015) Umpqua Community College (October 1, 2015) Orlando Nightclub (June 12, 2016) Las Vegas Concert (October 1, 2017) Sutherland Springs Church (November 2, 2017) Stoneman Douglas HS (February 14, 2018) |
Analysis (1990 to Present)
- 9 involved an assault style weapon "like" the AR-15
- 7 of the last 9 shootings involved an assault style weapon
- Shooter age ranges from 17 to 64
- Average shooter age is 32.2
- 13 were over the age of 21
- Average # of victims from an assault style weapon: 41
- Average # of victims not from an assault style weapon: 38
- There is NO correlation between type of weapon and total number of deaths/injuries.
- There IS a correlation between experience with the weapon and total number of deaths/injuries.
- 11 ended in shooter's suicide.
- 12 showed signs of possible mental health issues. Some confirmed and some unconfirmed.
- Shooter background with guns is inconstant. No link between gun experience and violent tendencies.
Conclusions based on above raw data:
- Raising the age to purchase a weapon to 21 "may have" prevented approximately 24% of mass shootings (It is recognized that proving the results of any past action to 100% accuracy is not humanly possible).
- Mental health issues (to including unconfirmed issues) span 70% of mass shootings which indicates this could be the primary cause to most shootings.
- Banning a particular type of weapon will not stop a mass shooter as smaller caliber weapons are still available and will have little to no effect on the number of deaths/injuries.
- Mass shootings over the past 10 years have increased in frequency and involve more assault style weapons. While this can be directly related to the end of the “assault weapons” ban of 1994, it is only because the aggressors chose the most capable and readily available weapon. By eliminating “assault weapons” these killers will then chose the next most capable and readily available weapon.
Secret service 2018 report (Source 1)
After compiling and analyzing the above listed data the U.S. Secret Service published their own analysis on the same mass shootings and published their findings on March 29, 2018:
- Nearly half were motivated by a personal grievance related to a workplace, domestic, or other issue.
- Over half had histories of criminal charges, mental health symptoms, and/or illicit substance use or abuse.
- All had at least one significant stressor within the last five years, and over half had indications of financial instability in that timeframe.
- Over three-quarters made concerning communications and/or elicited concern from others prior to carrying out their attacks. On average, those who did elicit concern caused more harm than those who did not.
Sources
- United States Secret Service, National Threat Assessment Center. (March 29, 2018). Mass Attacks in Public Places - 2017. Retreived from https://www.secretservice.gov/forms/USSS_NTAC-Mass_Attacks_in_Public_Spaces-2017.pdf